Bitcoin’s Rally Faces Leverage Test – Dragging MSTR, COIN, ASST And BMNR Lower

[lklol]

Key points:
Bitcoin fell by over 1% to around $70,800 on Monday, but retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned ‘bullish’.
CryptoQuant analysis suggested the recent rally was driven by futures leverage, with weakening open interest signaling a fragile market structure.
Crypto-linked stocks, including Strategy Inc, Coinbase Global Inc, and Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc declined in pre-market trading.
Crypto-related stocks slipped in pre-market trading Monday, mirroring a pullback in Bitcoin (BTC) as analysts flagged that the recent rally may have relied more on leveraged futures activity than on genuine spot demand.

Strategy Inc (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, closed in the red on Friday. In pre-market hours, MSTR’s stock was down by over 2%. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around MSTR remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) closed in the red, down 0.69% on Friday. During pre-market trading hours, COIN’s stock was down by over 2%. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around COIN also remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Strive Asset Management, LLC (ASST) had closed up over 10% on Friday, and in pre-market hours, ASST’s stock was down over 5%. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ASST moved to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘low’ levels over the past day.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc (BMNR) had closed in green on Friday. In pre-market hours, BMNR’s stock price was trading down over 2%. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BMNR remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter levels around it stayed ‘low’ over the past day.

Figma (FIG), a design software company that holds Bitcoin on its balance sheet, had closed in the red on Friday, down by almost 5%. In pre-market hours, FIG’s stock continued its slide, down over 1%. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around FIG remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter levels around it remained ‘high’ over the past day.

Analysts Are Not Sold On A Bull Run Yet

CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán explained that the recent price move appeared to be driven largely by futures positioning rather than by organic demand.

He noted that the latest impulse higher was accompanied by a sharp rise in open interest, suggesting an aggressive buildup of leverage. The subsequent drop in both price and open interest indicated a breakdown in that structure, suggesting the uptrend may have been fragile.

The analyst added that without strong spot demand, any rebound in Bitcoin could remain “structurally fragile,” with the market potentially entering a corrective phase.

Adding to the cautious tone, on-chain researcher James Check noted that Bitcoin's declining compound annual growth rate reflected the asset's natural maturation as it grew larger, similar to how a $1 trillion asset cannot grow at the same pace as a $1 billion one, and that investor expectations should adjust accordingly.

Market Reacts To Geopolitical Uncertainty

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $70,807, down over 1% over the past 24 hours. On Sunday, it had reached the $ 73,000 level. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC moved to 'bullish' from the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter rose to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

The cautious tone around Bitcoin’s price also came as the US-Iran ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended over the weekend without a breakthrough. The US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials failed to reach an agreement after extended negotiations, leaving the outlook uncertain.

The lack of resolution added pressure on risk assets during pre-market hours, with Bitcoin and crypto-linked equities reacting to both macro uncertainty and signs of weakening internal market structure.
source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/stocktwits:d1e2fd00d094b:0/